Forecasting Energy Demand: The Case of United Arab Emirates

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to forecast energy use in United Arab Emirates (UAE) using annual data over the period 1976-2009. The methodology used in this study follows the artificial neural networks analyses. We use four independent variables, namely, gross domestic product, population, exports, and imports to forecast energy use. Empirical results reveal that the projected energy use in United Arab Emirates will reach 69,000 and 76,900 Kt. of oil equivalent in years 2015 and 2020, respectively. Thus, a better and more realistic energy forecast is necessary for the policy makers when making decisions for the next decade. Therefore, the policy makers need to take this increase in energy use into consideration as it may pose a threat to economic development in the country should energy needs will not be met.